Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers - Suns vs Cavaliers Preview

Suns vs Cavaliers Preview

This game is a reality check for both: the shorthanded Suns need to protect home court without Devin Booker, and the battered Cavaliers are limping into town with their season depth stretched thin. It might have looked like a spicy clash in October, but right now, it’s a survival test for whoever’s got the least duct tape holding the roster together.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers

VS
Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns

Friday, January 30, 2026

Win Probability (BAC Model)

5%
—
95%

Competitiveness

1/10

Viewing Value

4.1 — Light Scrimmage

Team Statistics

Stat Phoenix Suns Cleveland Cavaliers
Record 29-19 (7th West) 29-20 (5th East)
Win% 0.604 0.592
ORtg 114.5 116.7
DRtg 111.9 113.6
Pace 99.3 101.8
TQS 2.86 3.18
Schedule Back-to-back 1 day rest • Road trip (1 of 2)
Head-to-Head Comparison Cavaliers Suns ORtg 116.7 114.5 DRtg 113.6 111.9 Pace 101.8 99.3 Net Rtg 3.2 2.6 Win% 59.2 60.4 TQS 3.2 2.9 Last 5 Games Suns W 106-99 L 105-108 L 121-127 W 112-93 W 112-107 Cavaliers L 104-136 W 117-115 W 133-107 L 112-123 W 146-134 Four Factors eFG% TOV% ORB% FTr Suns Cavaliers

Matchup Overview

Phoenix leads this dance — even with Booker out and the second night of a back-to-back looming — because Cleveland’s roster is buckling under the weight of injuries. For the Cavs, it’s “next man up” until Donovan Mitchell’s carrying a clipboard and a water bottle instead of the offense.

Stats Corner

  • Suns are 29-19 and playing at a measured pace (99.3, slowest side of average).
  • Cavs slightly behind at 29-20, but have the edge in Team Quality Score (TQS: 3.18 to Suns’ 2.86).
  • Cleveland boasts a better offensive rating (ORtg: 116.7) and a higher PS/G (119.2) than Phoenix (ORtg: 114.5, PS/G: 114).
  • Both clubs are bottom-10 in recent defensive form: Cavs allow 116.1 PA/G; Suns surrender 111.2.
  • Both backcourts are depleted: Booker out for PHX; Garland, Mobley, Strus all out for CLE.
  • BAC Model’s win probability: Phoenix 95%, Cleveland 5%.

The Edge & What Could Break It

BAC Pick: Phoenix Suns. The Suns keep their rotation mostly intact outside Booker, while Cleveland’s injury list looks like the end credits of a movie.

  • Cleveland’s offense is now “Donovan or bust.” If he’s gassed, they’re toast.
  • The Suns still have shot creation with Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks — and home-court, even on tired legs.
  • Phoenix has handled adversity better in recent games (beat the Knicks twice in the last week).

Risks:
– Second night of a back-to-back is always a landmine for the home team (legs go dead, shooters brick open looks).
– Mitchell nuclear night: If he goes for 40+ and the role guys hit threes, this gets weird fast.

Confidence: Near lock. A Cavs upset would take a perfect storm: Mitchell channeling 2019 Harden and the Suns sleepwalking.

The Bottom Line

The Suns have the bodies, the crowd, and just enough firepower to grind out an ugly win. Cavs are down too many pieces to hang without a miracle. Playoff teams find ways to survive these nights; Phoenix will.

From the Teams