Matchup Overview
New Orleans is battered and out of the play-in, but, somehow, they’re still the less dysfunctional team in the building. Utah’s roster is so depleted you half expect to see Rudy Gobert lacing up for old time’s sake. This one is about pride and auditions, with both benches wide open, and bad defense guaranteed.
Stats Corner
- Pelicans have lost 5 straight, but their defensive rating (117.4) still outpaces Utah’s collapse (121.2).
- Utah allows 125.9 points per game—worst in basketball over the last five, and barely bothering to contest shots.
- Jazz missing Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic—that’s three of their top-four players gone.
- Pelicans’ Dejounte Murray questionable—averaged 16.7 points, 6.4 assists when healthy.
- Pelicans’ net rating over last five: -8.2; Jazz: -16.8. Yes, really.
- BAC Model: Pelicans win probability 81%—highest in the NBA tonight.
The Edge & What Could Break It
BAC Pick: Pelicans. The Pelicans have more healthy rotation players, and just enough defense to keep the Jazz in the mud.
Supporting the pick:
– New Orleans is, somehow, kind of healthy—Utah is not: No Markkanen, no Nurkic, no JJJ means Jazz have zero inside presence or go-to scorer.
– Utah’s defense is a paper screen door: 57.8 eFG% allowed, 125.9 PA/G over last five, and nobody even pretending to box out.
– Even without Murray (questionable), New Orleans’ active guys like DeAndre Jordan and Kevon Looney can crash the glass. Jazz will struggle if Kyle Filipowski (questionable) sits.
Risks:
– Pelicans’ effort level is trending toward “already on vacation.” Five straight losses, including a 102-134 blowout by Houston, suggest mental check-outs.
– Dejounte Murray’s status: If he’s a late scratch, New Orleans will be leaning on guys who couldn’t crack playoff rotations anywhere.
Confidence tag: 8/10. Utah’s roster attrition makes this almost automatic, but if New Orleans truly doesn’t show up, things could get silly.
The Bottom Line
The Pelicans should win because the Jazz can barely field a team—and everyone left is gassed or out of position. Value here is in watching who steps up from the Pelicans’ fringe and seeing if anyone on the Jazz can shoot their way into a contract. Don’t expect drama—expect New Orleans to handle business, ugly as it may be.