Matchup Overview
Two teams with dueling motivations—Los Angeles, barely .500 and fighting to stay relevant, faces a New Orleans squad that’s played much better than their record hints, especially at home. Both sides are missing key pieces, making availability and star power the wild cards. The edge comes down to who handles their injuries and executes late.
Stats Corner
- Pelicans’ recent scoring jump: Averaging 122.0 PPG last 3 wins, including a decisive 129-111 against Dallas.
- Clippers’ offense steadier: ORtg 116.2 (season), but recent games swing wildly—153-128 W vs MIN, then 109-118 L vs SAC.
- Pace difference: Pelicans play much faster (101.3 pace) than LA (97.2).
- Turnover battle: New Orleans’ TOV% 14.0 beats LA’s sloppier 14.9%.
- Paint presence: DeAndre Jordan (6.4 boards) and Kevon Looney give New Orleans a solid 31.5 ORB%, an edge over the Clippers’ 28.7 ORB%.
- Injury clouds: Pelicans’ leading guard Dejounte Murray (19.8 PTS, Questionable) and Clippers’ stars Leonard, Garland both Questionable.
The Edge & What Could Break It
BAC Model picks the Pelicans, pointing to their offensive tempo and recent home upsets as the deciding factors.
- Supporting factors:
- New Orleans is clicking offensively—3 wins in last 5, all over 120 points.
- LA’s defense is average (DRtg 115.4), trending down since the Beal/Niederhauser losses.
- The Pelicans rebound at an elite rate, especially on the offensive glass—critical with the Clippers’ bigs depleted.
- Risks that could flip it:
- If Dejounte Murray sits, the Pelicans lose their most efficient scorer (60.8 eFG%) and perimeter defense.
- If Kawhi Leonard suits up and looks sharp, he can singlehandedly swing the game—LA leans on him for shot creation and late-game defense.
- Clippers on the first leg of a road trip sometimes bring extra focus; if Garland plays, LA’s half-court offense gets a major boost.
Confidence tag: Slight edge to New Orleans (54% BAC probability). The contest is up for grabs—one star’s absence or eruption tips the scale.
The Bottom Line
This one is tight, but bank on the Pelicans’ high gear at home and their aggression on the glass to make the difference—assuming Murray gives it a go. The Clippers have the talent to steal it if their stars suit up, but they’re stuck in injury limbo and haven’t found consistency. Pelicans grab a statement win against a sliding LA squad—if they bring the same urgency as last week.