Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
Game Overview
Win Probability: Memphis Grizzlies 66% | New Orleans Pelicans 34% (Δ 32%)
Betting Analysis Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
Game Competitiveness: 5/10
League Pass Rating: 5.8 — Limited Competitiveness
Team Statistics
| Stat | Memphis Grizzlies | New Orleans Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-24 | 10-36 |
| Win% | 0.429 | 0.217 |
| ORtg | 112.9 | 111.9 |
| DRtg | 114 | 119 |
| Pace | 101.5 | 101.6 |
| TQS | -0.84 | -6.4 |
| Schedule | Back-to-back | Back-to-back |
This game is a test of resilience for Memphis and a gut check for New Orleans. With both teams on back-to-back schedules and carrying hefty injury lists, this battle will be decided by who can execute under duress and who can limit mistakes when tired legs set in.
Matchup Overview
The Memphis Grizzlies (18-24, TQS: -0.84) face the New Orleans Pelicans (10-36, TQS: -6.4), both desperate for momentum. Memphis is banged up—their core stars sidelined—but remains a tier above the struggling Pelicans. The Grizzlies’ modest offense and defense hold up against a New Orleans squad who owns one of the league’s lowest win percentages (.217) and a -7.1 net rating.
Key Statistical Trends
Memphis scores 115.3 points per game while conceding 116.2, keeping games close but not always closing them out. Their team shooting efficiency (eFG% 52.8) is nearly identical to New Orleans (eFG% 52.4), but the Pelicans’ porous defense allows 122 points per game and a dangerous 56.7% defensive eFG%—one of the league’s worst. Key contributors like Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.7 PPG, 54.0 eFG%) will look to attack a soft interior.
New Orleans struggles to control the boards (DRB% 67.4) and can’t stop runs defensively (DRtg 119). Individual flashes from DeAndre Jordan (TS% 76.5) are bright spots, but not enough to stem the bleeding. Both rosters are depleted, but Memphis’ system remains more robust.
Betting Analysis
The numbers back Memphis with conviction. BAC probability: 66% for the Grizzlies—impressive considering their short bench. The competitiveness score is middling (5/10) and the League Pass Rating sits at 5.8, reflecting limited drama but a clear favorite.
Memphis’ decisive edge: slightly better offense, better team quality, and fewer cracks in the defense. Even on a back-to-back, the Grizzlies’ discipline should outpace New Orleans’ leaky setup.
The Bottom Line
Keep it simple: Memphis is the disciplined, more efficient team even while shorthanded. New Orleans hasn’t shown the defensive consistency or offensive dynamism to threaten. Expect the Grizzlies to absorb the pressure, control the tempo, and secure a businesslike win. If you’re wagering or watching, bet on Memphis’ stability to carry the night—Grizzlies to win.