Matchup Overview
New Orleans has won four of five—and just spanked L.A. by 15 points last week. The Pelicans are scrapping for dignity after a brutal campaign, but with the home crowd behind them and a sudden jolt of swagger, they smell blood. The Clippers? They’re clinging to .500, dog-tired halfway through a road trip, bodies in the infirmary, and a locker room with more questions than answers.
Two teams, one mirror: both on a back-to-back, both banged-up, both allergic to defense. Whoever lands the last punch walks out with a vital win and a dose of short-term momentum.
Stats Corner
- Pelicans have outscored their last five opponents by 49 points—best five-game stretch of their year.
- Clippers are 2-3 in their last five, including a double-digit loss to these same Pelicans.
- New Orleans offense rolling: 115.8 points/game; last three: 128.3 ppg.
- Clippers’ defense softening up: Allowed 118+ in 3 straight, DRtg 115.6 (season).
- Both teams on a back-to-back; Clippers missing key wings (Mathurin, Batum).
- BAC Model: Pelicans win probability 52% → This is a dead heat, with the tiniest edge to New Orleans.
The Edge & What Could Break It
BAC Pick: New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing their best ball of the season, sparked by a suddenly energized offense (see: 129, 122, 138 in winning efforts), while the Clippers’ depth has evaporated at the wrong time.
Supporting the pick:
– New Orleans fresh off a 124–109 drubbing of L.A. Same matchup, same rosters, same issues: Pelicans dominated the glass and owned the pace.
– Dejounte Murray: Suddenly all-league efficient (61.9 eFG%, 19.4 ppg), slicing up defenses like a hot knife through margarine.
– Clippers’ injury trouble compounds road fatigue. With Mathurin and Batum out, plus long-term holes from Beal and Niederhauser, this is a skeleton crew on heavy legs.
Risks:
– Clippers can still shoot: eFG% 55.6 on the year and John Collins (62.6 eFG%) is a rolling threat. If they light it up from deep for a night, all bets are off.
– Pelicans’ defense is a turnstile: DRtg 117.2, and they bleed points at the rim when Looney and Jordan check out.
Confidence tag: Near coin-flip. Slightest lean to the Pelicans thanks to health, recent play, and a softer defensive opponent.
The Bottom Line
The Pelicans are healthier, hotter, and have already shown they know how to beat this version of the Clippers—and they get to do it at home. I trust Murray and the New Orleans scorers to keep their foot down, while the Clippers’ patchwork rotation finally buckles.
Pelicans by two possessions. Place your chips accordingly.